Upperhouse.info

McCain's Daughter's Blog

Sat, 29 Mar 2008 21:24:59 +1000

John McCain's daughter Megan has her own blog which is politics free and offers a unique view inside a presidential campaign. Very interesting.

BCC Elections Bring Out The Youth Vote

Wed, 19 Mar 2008 19:10:33 +1000

This should be a warning to all parents against letting an election junkie babysit children on an election day.

Brisbane City Council Prediction

Thu, 13 Mar 2008 20:07:15 +1000

The race for Australia's biggest city council, Brisbane, will be held on Saturday. Campbell Newman, the Liberal's top ranked politician in Australia is hoping to be re-elected as well as ending Labor's hold on the council chamber.

My prediction is that he will smash Labor and end their 18 year? council domination by gaining five seats to form a majority.

Labor is only running a half hearted campaign. No one at work could even name their mayoral candidate.

Australia's Most Notorious Justice Minister

Fri, 07 Mar 2008 13:41:16 +1000

Former New South Wales Justice Minister Thomas Ley:

Was charged with attempting to bribe his Labor opponent Fred McDonald. McDonald mysteriously "disappeared" and the charges were dropped.
Ley critic Hyman Goldstein (Member for Coogee) was found dead after apparently "falling" from cliffs.
Keith Greedor was investigating the previous death but, whilst travelling by boat, he fell overboard and drowned.
Convicted of the Murder of John McBain Mudie, who he thought was having an affair with his mistress.

He died in Broadmoor Asylum, England in 1947.

Australian Politics Sites Blocked by Iran

Sat, 09 Feb 2008 23:34:46 +1000

While browsing the Iranian Web I became curious as to which sites are blocked, and which aren't. Rating the blockage level is complicated because a site will be banned then work half an hour later.

The site most disliked by the Iranian Government is.. The Other Cheek - Andrew Landeryou's Blog of Freedom

Blocked 90% of the time:

The Other Cheek - Andrew Landeryou's Blog of Freedom

Blocked 80% of the time:

Polemica (Unsure why)

Blocked 70% of the time:

A Western Heart

Reasons You Will Hate Me

These sites are blocked 50% of the time:

Blogger from the Cast Iron Balcony

News.Com.Au

The Age

The Herald Sun

The Sydney Morning Herald

Kadaitcha

The below sites always work: (There will be some disappointed bloggers here I'm sure)

A Better World: Graeme Bird For High Office

Ambit Gambit

Ampersand Duck

Andrew Leigh

Andrew Norton

Antony Loewenstein

armagnac'd

Australian Politics

Austrolabe

Balneus

Barista

Bastards Inc.

Beelzebublog

Beyond The Fringe

Bilegrip

Blogocracy

catallaxy

CoreEcon

Counteract Now: Where The Right Is Not Right

crazybrave

CROSS-WIRE

Daily Flute

Decomposing Trees

Deltoid

Dennis Shanahan

DogfightAtBankstown

DUCKPOND

election2007

event mechanics

Fair Crack of the Whip

Father Bob

For Battle!

GordonMoyes.com

GrodsCorp Politics

HarrangueMan

Henry Thornton Blogs

Hoyden About Town

Hyperidian Bannerman

Jennifer Marohasy

John Barrdear

John Howard: War Criminal

John Quiggin

Kerplunk - Common sense from Down Under

Larvatus Prodeo

LeftClick

Leftwrites

man of lettuce

mark lawrence

Matt Price

Max Baumann

Meganomics

mgk: Machine Gun Keyboard

Moral Dilemma

Oz Conservative

Oz Politics

OzDemocracy

Parliamentary Library Web Site Publications

Paul Kelly

personal political

Peter Martin

Planet Irf

Possums Pollytics

Random Brainwave

Rank and Vile

ROCKET

Rudd Watch

Sachi's hyperbolic space

simon jackman's blog

Slattsnews

South Sea Republic

Stephen Lloyd

stoush.net - stoushing since 2005

Suki Has An Opinion

The Adventures of QueerPenguin

The All New An Onymous Lefty

The Dog's Bollocks

The Killfile

The Legal Soapbox

The Orstrahyun

The Piping Shrike

The Poll Bludger

The Raving Wingnut

The Road to Surfdom

The Thinkers' Podium

The View From Benambra - Original content - hah!

There Aint no Sanity Clause

thesouthcoast

Thoughts on Freedom

Tim Blair

Tug Boat Potemkin

Upperhouse.info

Webdiary - Founded and Inspired by Margo Kingston - Webdiary - Independent, Ethical, Accountable and Transparent

Your Democracy - democracy is not a spectator sport

YOUR NEW REALITY

Homespun Folksey Presidents

Tue, 05 Feb 2008 18:57:52 +1000

Never forget - for some strange reason Americans love homespun folksey presidents. Why is beyond me.

McCain has that all over his opponents and gives the Republicans a big advantage over his Democrat rivals.

Obama can out "homespun folksey" Romney so the Republicans are in trouble if he wins the nomination.

This is a purely superficial observation and is probably rubbish but does go a long way towards explaining every president back to Jimmy Carter.

PS: I'm still in Iran but trying to follow the action from the unblocked websites.

Notice

Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:26:20 +1000

I'll be on a project in Iran for the next month so activity here is going to be quite slow.

A Rare Presidential Election

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 19:00:09 +1000

I love the US Presidential Elections.

You have the staggered party "Primaries" then the real election. Dozens of mini-elections.

First off the mark are the Iowa Caucases in a week's time, then comes the New Hampshire primaries.

This is an unusual presidential race because normally we have either a sitting President or Vice President running as candidate. With none in the race we have large open fields on both sides.

When was the last time that happened ? I decided to do some research:

2004: GWB

2000: Gore (VP)

1996: Clinton

1992: GB snr

1988: GB snr (VP)

1984: Reagan

1980: Carter

1976: Ford

1972: Nixon (VP)

1968: Johnson (withdrew from race after poor primary results)

1964: Johnson

1960: Nixon (VP)

1956: Eisenhower

1952: Truman (withdrew from race after poor primary results)

1948: Truman

1944: Roosevelt

1940: Roosevelt

1936: Roosevelt

1932: Hoover

1928: Coolidge and VP Dawes didn't re-contest

So 1928 !

Update

This has already been noticed.

Senate Magnum Opus

Sat, 17 Nov 2007 23:19:34 +1000

UPDATE

I forgot to mention the ACT.

The ACT has a quota of 33% and only elects two senators. (100/(2+1))

The key battle here is between the Liberals and the Greens for the second seat.

The Liberals are only receiving preferences from the LDP, so need to reach 33% off their primary in order to hold their seat.

Unlike other senators, ACT senators are only elected for one term and take their seat immediately rather than July next year, so if the Greens won, the BOP would change in time for a Rudd government. We'll know on Saturday night.

I am going to tip the Liberals. The Liberals have a minimum, rock-bottom vote and I think it'll be above 33%.

END UPDATE

Democrats

Andrew Bartlett in Queensland has the best chance of any Democrat of being elected (the others have no chance), however I still can't see him retaining his seat.

There are only two ways he can get elected: by getting a higher vote than the Greens, or getting a higher vote than Pauline Hanson.

Neither of these results is likely. History shows the Democrats get a much lower vote than the senate polls suggest, while history shows Pauline gets higher than polls suggest.

Bartlett didn't negotiate good preference deals. The only party putting him high is the Climate Change Coalition, so he won't be able to ride preferences and will have to rely on his questionable primary vote.

He's run a good campaign. I've seen more Democrats material than Greens. I haven't seen a single Greens sign or received a single leaflet in my letter box.

I've received one Democrats leaflet,(sent much too early), and saw a Democrats sign towed behind a bike.

Unfortunately the Democrats are a tainted brand and this is the last election they will be taken semi-seriously. Micro-party status is the future.

Primary vote: 2.5%

Greens

Despite many pundits speculating that The Greens primary vote will fall, they are in a much better position than 2004 due to better preference arrangements.

The Democrats 2% is very useful, plus a nation-wide Labor deal puts them in a strong position for the third 'left' seat in each state.

Unlike most pundits, I am going to predict that the Greens don't take any conservative senate seats. The Liberals will get their third seats on conservative Minor/Micro preferences. I can't see "the combined Right" getting less than 43% of the combined vote.

Greens State by state probabilities

Tasmania: 100%, Second seat: 5%.
West Australia: 80%, Will miss out if Labor gets near 43%.
New South Wales: 60%, Will miss out if Labor gets near 43%, and the LDP could starve their preferences similar to LFF in 2004.
Victoria: 70%, Will miss out if Labor gets near 43%. More likely than NSW due to higher primary vote.
South Australia: 55%, Xenophon makes this a weird senate race. A number of scenarios I've run don't turn into a Green victory.
Queensland: 50%, Depends on Pauline as she may elect the third Labor candidate.

This election looks good for the Greens. I'm going to predict 4 senators.

Family First

In general, Family First's chances rely on getting ahead of the coaliton, which only happens if the Liberal excess is less than half a quota (ie Coalition senate vote <= 35.5%).

Family First should be praying the Liberals get absolutely thumped.

Family First State by State probabilities

Queensland: 50%, the maths is simple, if they get in front of Pauline, they win a seat (and so do the Greens).
South Australia: 40%, if they maintain their state election result, and Xenophon pushes the Liberal low, they win a seat.
Victoria: 25%, if they maintain their state election result, and Liberal excess is less than half a quota (ie 35.5%) they win a seat.
Western Australia: 8%, Can win if they get 1% ahead of the CDP and Coalition vote below 37%
Tasmania: 0%, no micros means no harvest
New South Wales: 0%, their weakest state

Nick Xenophon

Xenophon's candidacy has thrown a hand-grenade into the South Australian Senate race.

Xenophon himself is a shoe-in, and will probably take a seat from the Right. The more interesting aspect of his presence is how much vote the other parties will lose to him.

From my South Australia 2006 analysis of Xenophon desertion rates it can be seen that some party's voters are more loyal than others. Many young Greens voters may be attracted by Xenophon's quirky style and drastically affect their primary senate vote.

Xenophon isn't receiving many preferences and is unlikely to get his second candidate elected unless his vote is near 28%.

Queensland Musings

Queensland is a tricky one.

Family First have broken the One Nation/Pauline nexus, which was an important source of preferences for her.

One Nation had a senator up for re-election in 2004 and are likely to lose half their vote, but still get above 1%, which is huge in senate terms.

The Maths for Queensland is this:

IF Coalition > 41% THEN
  3-3 or 3-2-1
ELSE IF FF + ONP + GrpX + FishLife > Pauline + NonCust + Shoot + LDP THEN
  2-2-1-1
ELSE
  3-3

If Family First don't absorb Pauline's preferences, they get unleashed to the Labor Party, locking the Greens out of contention, and electing Labor to the 3rd Left Seat for the first time in Queensland since the six seat senate was created.

Potential Micro Harvests

The chances of Micro Harvests are often overstated due to over-estimation of Micro Party percentages. The chance of a Micro getting 1% is very very slim. Micro results are normally 0.5% or below. GROUP A,B,C etc should be 0.1%.

The Liberty and Democracy Party in New South Wales is the biggest chance. It's freaky how with semi-realistic numbers they get elected.

It's still highly unlikely due to the incredible number of micro preferences they are relying on to make up their numbers.

The LDP also stuffed up their paper work so only the acronym "LDP" will appear on the Ballot paper. A HUGE mistake.

If I was Terje Peterson, I'd mortgage the house and buy some TV time. This chance won't come again.

Personally I don't like some of their policies, such as Guns (too easy) and Drugs (too easy). I'd rather live in a safe, slightly less free society. So I'm hoping they don't win, despite their excellent free trade economic policies and my admiration of Ayn Rand's writing.

The CDP in WA have a harvest ready if the Liberal vote drops below 37%.

James Baker YouTube

Wed, 07 Nov 2007 21:32:48 +1000

Queensland Independent Senate Candidate James Baker has picked up some campaign tricks from Nick Xenophon.

New Democrats Commercial

Wed, 07 Nov 2007 20:15:34 +1000

What do you guys think of this ?

ABC Senate Calculators

Mon, 05 Nov 2007 16:12:17 +1000

Antony Green has created some wonderful Senate Calculators for us to play with.

Should I still bother with mine ?

Interestingly, the very first time I ran it for Queensland, the result was 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green and 1 Family First.

Someone critique my estimated vote figures:

Party	% Votes
Liberal/National Coalition	% 37.90%
Australian Labor Party	% 35.93%
The Greens	% 7.00%
Family First	% 4.50%
Pauline's United Australia	% 5.00%
Australian Democrats	% 2.20%
One Nation	% 1.50%
The Fishing Party	% 1.28%
What Women Want	% 1.00%
Liberty and Democracy Party	% 0.90%
Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party	% 0.70%
D.L.P. - Democratic Labor Party	% 0.50%
Carers Alliance	% 0.40%
Climate Change Coalition	% 0.40%
Christian Democratic Party	% 0.30%
Non-Custodial Parents Party	% 0.19%
Citizens Electoral Council	% 0.15%
Socialist Alliance	% 0.10%
Senator On-Line	% 0.05%

I suspect I've been miserly with Pauline's first preference vote ?

UPDATE Nope, I've tried it a few times. If FF get in front of Pauline they win.

UPDATE Checking South Australia, currently predicting a Green/Xenophon win there.

Nick Xenophon's preference negotiation skills haven't improved since the South Australian election.

I gave him 10% yet he struggles to be elected. He receives almost zero Micro preferences and is the last candidate elected despite receiving twice the Green vote in my estimates.

UPDATE There's a chance of either an LDP or CDP Harvest in New South Wales. A couple of scenarios I've tried produced wins from these parties, especially with really low coaliton primary votes.

The LDP also choke off the flow of preferences to Kerry Nettle, similar to the Liberals for Forests in NSW in 2004.

Queensland Senate Tickets

Sun, 04 Nov 2007 16:15:02 +1000

The senate tickets are here.

I will be putting my idle thoughts on what I see in this thread as I go through them.

Contenders: Labor, Coalition, Family First, Greens and Pauline.

Initial thoughts:

The Greens have put Family First ahead of the Coalition. The favour has not been returned.

This is a massive boost to Family First's prospects in the competiton with Ron Boswell, however I'm still looking.

Family First have the Democrats last, with the Greens second last.

Family First

Coalition

Pauline

Labor

Greens

Democrats

Democrats:

Greens

Labor

Coalition

Family First

Pauline

Coalition:

Family First

Democrats

Greens

Labor

Pauline

Labor:

Greens

Democrats

Family First

Coalition

Pauline

Greens:

Democrats

Labor

Family First

Coalition

Pauline

Pauline

Family First

Democrats

Labor

Coalition

Greens

Candidate Analysis

Sat, 03 Nov 2007 01:44:22 +1000

The beauty of SQL..

Candidates per Party - Entire Country

GRN 150
ALP 145
LP 132
FFP 129
IND 102
DEM 86
CEC 81
CDP 63
LDP 47
NP 24
ONWA 23
SAL 17
HAN 12
SEP 9
CCC 7
CLR 5
4
DLP 4
WWW 4
CCE 4
NCP 2
CLP 2
FPY 2

Candidates per Party - ACT

ACT ALP 2
ACT CEC 2
ACT GRN 2
ACT LP 2
ACT IND 1
ACT DEM 1
ACT SAL 1

Candidates per Party - NSW

NSW GRN 49
NSW ALP 44
NSW CDP 44
NSW LP 40
NSW IND 38
NSW FFP 32
NSW CEC 24
NSW DEM 12
NSW LDP 12
NSW NP 9
NSW HAN 8
NSW CCC 7
NSW SEP 6
NSW SAL 5
NSW CLR 5
NSW CCE 3
NSW 3
NSW NCP 2
NSW FPY 1

Candidates per Party - NT

NT IND 3
NT GRN 2
NT CLP 2
NT ALP 2
NT CEC 1
NT LDP 1

Candidates per Party - QLD

QLD GRN 29
QLD DEM 29
QLD FFP 29
QLD ALP 29
QLD IND 26
QLD LP 24
QLD CEC 14
QLD LDP 12
QLD NP 10
QLD ONWA 8
QLD SAL 3
QLD CDP 2
QLD FPY 1

Candidates per Party - SA

SA FFP 11
SA DEM 11
SA ALP 11
SA LP 11
SA GRN 11
SA LDP 6
SA IND 5
SA HAN 3
SA NP 2
SA WWW 2
SA CCE 1

Candidates per Party - TAS

TAS ALP 5
TAS CEC 5
TAS FFP 5
TAS LP 5
TAS GRN 5
TAS IND 2
TAS LDP 2
TAS SAL 2

Candidates per Party - VIC

VIC GRN 37
VIC FFP 37
VIC ALP 37
VIC LP 35
VIC DEM 33
VIC CEC 22
VIC IND 17
VIC LDP 8
VIC DLP 4
VIC SAL 3
VIC SEP 2
VIC CDP 2
VIC NP 2
VIC HAN 1
VIC 1
VIC WWW 1

Candidates per Party - WA

WA CDP 15
WA ALP 15
WA FFP 15
WA ONWA 15
WA LP 15
WA GRN 15
WA CEC 13
WA IND 10
WA LDP 6
WA SAL 3
WA WWW 1
WA SEP 1
WA NP 1

One Nation seems to be using One Nation WA's party status in Queensland to get on the ballot paper.

UPDATE

No Democrats in WA.

UPDATE

Reader Polly has noticed something unusual:

in the senate in Victoria, there is a One Nation Party group registered (they got the 2nd position on the ballot paper), but there is also a One Nation WA candidate running for the senate in Victoria by himself, so he'll be listed with the three other ungrouped candidates running for the senate.

Candidates.. waiting ..waiting

Fri, 02 Nov 2007 13:40:29 +1000

The candidates list is still not working. Maybe they're waiting for 12PM in Western Australia ?