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Victorian Upperhouse Mapping

The below are Estimates of the results for the new Victorian Upperhouse created using 2002 Election Lower House results.

This is performed by mapping the Lower House electorate to the Upperhouse region (11 seats per region) and calculating the total party percentages. Giving a probable result of:

Summary
Party Total
ALP21
LIB14
GRN4
NP1


Two analyses similar to this have been conducted, both by mapping the 2002 Upperhouse results. This is a more accurate technique as some major party voters switch to a minor party for the Upperhouse in the hope that a minor party will win the balance of power and operate as a legislative watchdog. In Victoria this means an increase in the Greens vote.

The first analysis was conducted by ABC election analyst Antony Green whose result was very similar with the ALP 1 lower to 20 and the Greens up 1 to 5.

The other was conducted by Crikey Psephologist Charles Richardson, who again came to a similar conclusion except the ALP was down two seats with 19 and the Greens up two with 6.



(Quota is 16.67%)
Eastern Metropolitan
Party Votes Pct Won Remain
LIB 170033 45.92 2 12.59
ALP 160705 43.40 2 10.07
GRN 38669 10.44 0 10.44
HOP 914 0.25 0 0.25

Fifth Seat: Likely Green
Eastern Victoria
Party Votes Pct Won Remain
ALP 135750 41.26 2 7.93
LIB 130398 39.63 2 6.30
GRN 33626 10.22 0 10.22
NP 27806 8.45 0 8.45
DEM 537 0.16 0 0.16
CDP 532 0.16 0 0.16
CEC 397 0.12 0 0.12

Fifth Seat: Likely Green
Northern Metropolitan
Party Votes Pct Won Remain
ALP 210078 60.26 3 10.26
LIB 80100 22.97 1 6.30
GRN 53391 15.31 0 15.31
CEC 2737 0.79 0 0.79
SAL 1461 0.42 0 0.42
DEM 878 0.25 0 0.25

Fifth Seat: Green
Northern Victoria
Party Votes Pct Won Remain
ALP 136020 40.80 2 7.47
LIB 100818 30.24 1 13.57
NP 72128 21.64 1 4.97
GRN 23297 6.99 0 6.99
CDP 684 0.21 0 0.21
CEC 426 0.13 0 0.13

Fifth Seat: Liberal
South Eastern Metropolitan
Party Votes Pct Won Remain
ALP 199178 56.58 3 6.58
LIB 121472 34.51 2 1.18
GRN 28806 8.18 0 8.18
DEM 1391 0.40 0 0.40
CEC 1176 0.33 0 0.33

Southern Metropolitan
Party Votes Pct Won Remain
LIB 160346 45.43 2 12.10
ALP 138375 39.20 2 5.87
GRN 52856 14.97 0 14.97
DEM 1142 0.32 0 0.32
CEC 271 0.08 0 0.08

Fifth Seat: Green
Western Metropolitan
Party Votes Pct Won Remain
ALP 230804 67.27 4 0.60
LIB 84455 24.61 1 7.94
GRN 21605 6.30 0 6.30
CEC 4376 1.28 0 1.28
DLP 1035 0.30 0 0.30
SAL 848 0.25 0 0.25

Western Victoria
Party Votes Pct Won Remain
ALP 181794 48.31 2 14.98
LIB 137389 36.51 2 3.18
GRN 30335 8.06 0 8.06
NP 25069 6.66 0 6.66
SAL 965 0.26 0 0.26
CDP 507 0.13 0 0.13
CEC 271 0.07 0 0.07

Fifth Seat: ALP



Summary
Party EM EV NM NV SEM SM WM WV Total
ALP2232324321
LIB2212221214
GRN111001004
NP000100001