The race for Australia's biggest city council, Brisbane, will be held on Saturday. Campbell Newman, the Liberal's top ranked politician in Australia is hoping to be re-elected as well as ending Labor's hold on the council chamber.
My prediction is that he will smash Labor and end their 18 year? council domination by gaining five seats to form a majority.
Labor is only running a half hearted campaign. No one at work could even name their mayoral candidate.
While browsing the Iranian Web I became curious as to which sites are blocked, and which aren't. Rating the blockage level is complicated because a site will be banned then work half an hour later.
The below sites always work: (There will be some disappointed bloggers here I'm sure)
A Better World: Graeme Bird For High Office
Ambit Gambit
Ampersand Duck
Andrew Leigh
Andrew Norton
Antony Loewenstein
armagnac'd
Australian Politics
Austrolabe
Balneus
Barista
Bastards Inc.
Beelzebublog
Beyond The Fringe
Bilegrip
Blogocracy
catallaxy
CoreEcon
Counteract Now: Where The Right Is Not Right
crazybrave
CROSS-WIRE
Daily Flute
Decomposing Trees
Deltoid
Dennis Shanahan
DogfightAtBankstown
DUCKPOND
election2007
event mechanics
Fair Crack of the Whip
Father Bob
For Battle!
GordonMoyes.com
GrodsCorp Politics
HarrangueMan
Henry Thornton Blogs
Hoyden About Town
Hyperidian Bannerman
Jennifer Marohasy
John Barrdear
John Howard: War Criminal
John Quiggin
Kerplunk - Common sense from Down Under
Larvatus Prodeo
LeftClick
Leftwrites
man of lettuce
mark lawrence
Matt Price
Max Baumann
Meganomics
mgk: Machine Gun Keyboard
Moral Dilemma
Oz Conservative
Oz Politics
OzDemocracy
Parliamentary Library Web Site Publications
Paul Kelly
personal political
Peter Martin
Planet Irf
Possums Pollytics
Random Brainwave
Rank and Vile
ROCKET
Rudd Watch
Sachi's hyperbolic space
simon jackman's blog
Slattsnews
South Sea Republic
Stephen Lloyd
stoush.net - stoushing since 2005
Suki Has An Opinion
The Adventures of QueerPenguin
The All New An Onymous Lefty
The Dog's Bollocks
The Killfile
The Legal Soapbox
The Orstrahyun
The Piping Shrike
The Poll Bludger
The Raving Wingnut
The Road to Surfdom
The Thinkers' Podium
The View From Benambra - Original content - hah!
There Aint no Sanity Clause
thesouthcoast
Thoughts on Freedom
Tim Blair
Tug Boat Potemkin
Upperhouse.info
Webdiary - Founded and Inspired by Margo Kingston - Webdiary - Independent, Ethical, Accountable and Transparent
Your Democracy - democracy is not a spectator sport
YOUR NEW REALITY
You have the staggered party "Primaries" then the real election. Dozens of mini-elections.
First off the mark are the Iowa Caucases in a week's time, then comes the New Hampshire primaries.
This is an unusual presidential race because normally we have either a sitting President or Vice President running as candidate. With none in the race we have large open fields on both sides.
When was the last time that happened ? I decided to do some research:
2004: GWB
2000: Gore (VP)
1996: Clinton
1992: GB snr
1988: GB snr (VP)
1984: Reagan
1980: Carter
1976: Ford
1972: Nixon (VP)
1968: Johnson (withdrew from race after poor primary results)
1964: Johnson
1960: Nixon (VP)
1956: Eisenhower
1952: Truman (withdrew from race after poor primary results)
1948: Truman
1944: Roosevelt
1940: Roosevelt
1936: Roosevelt
1932: Hoover
1928: Coolidge and VP Dawes didn't re-contest
The ACT has a quota of 33% and only elects two senators. (100/(2+1))
The key battle here is between the Liberals and the Greens for the second seat.
The Liberals are only receiving preferences from the LDP, so need to reach 33% off their primary in order to hold their seat.
Unlike other senators, ACT senators are only elected for one term and take their seat immediately rather than July next year, so if the Greens won, the BOP would change in time for a Rudd government. We'll know on Saturday night.
I am going to tip the Liberals. The Liberals have a minimum, rock-bottom vote and I think it'll be above 33%.
END UPDATE
Democrats
Andrew Bartlett in Queensland has the best chance of any Democrat of being elected (the others have no chance), however I still can't see him retaining his seat.
There are only two ways he can get elected: by getting a higher vote than the Greens, or getting a higher vote than Pauline Hanson.
Neither of these results is likely. History shows the Democrats get a much lower vote than the senate polls suggest, while history shows Pauline gets higher than polls suggest.
Bartlett didn't negotiate good preference deals. The only party putting him high is the Climate Change Coalition, so he won't be able to ride preferences and will have to rely on his questionable primary vote.
He's run a good campaign. I've seen more Democrats material than Greens. I haven't seen a single Greens sign or received a single leaflet in my letter box.
I've received one Democrats leaflet,(sent much too early), and saw a Democrats sign towed behind a bike.
Unfortunately the Democrats are a tainted brand and this is the last election they will be taken semi-seriously. Micro-party status is the future.
Primary vote: 2.5%
Greens
Despite many pundits speculating that The Greens primary vote will fall, they are in a much better position than 2004 due to better preference arrangements.
The Democrats 2% is very useful, plus a nation-wide Labor deal puts them in a strong position for the third 'left' seat in each state.
Unlike most pundits, I am going to predict that the Greens don't take any conservative senate seats. The Liberals will get their third seats on conservative Minor/Micro preferences. I can't see "the combined Right" getting less than 43% of the combined vote.
Greens State by state probabilities
Tasmania: 100%, Second seat: 5%.
West Australia: 80%, Will miss out if Labor gets near 43%.
New South Wales: 60%, Will miss out if Labor gets near 43%, and the LDP could starve their preferences similar to LFF in 2004.
Victoria: 70%, Will miss out if Labor gets near 43%. More likely than NSW due to higher primary vote.
South Australia: 55%, Xenophon makes this a weird senate race. A number of scenarios I've run don't turn into a Green victory.
Queensland: 50%, Depends on Pauline as she may elect the third Labor candidate.
This election looks good for the Greens. I'm going to predict 4 senators.
Family First
In general, Family First's chances rely on getting ahead of the coaliton, which only happens if the Liberal excess is less than half a quota (ie Coalition senate vote <= 35.5%).
Family First should be praying the Liberals get absolutely thumped.
Family First State by State probabilities
Queensland: 50%, the maths is simple, if they get in front of Pauline, they win a seat (and so do the Greens).
South Australia: 40%, if they maintain their state election result, and Xenophon pushes the Liberal low, they win a seat.
Victoria: 25%, if they maintain their state election result, and Liberal excess is less than half a quota (ie 35.5%) they win a seat.
Western Australia: 8%, Can win if they get 1% ahead of the CDP and Coalition vote below 37%
Tasmania: 0%, no micros means no harvest
New South Wales: 0%, their weakest state
Nick Xenophon
Xenophon's candidacy has thrown a hand-grenade into the South Australian Senate race.
Xenophon himself is a shoe-in, and will probably take a seat from the Right. The more interesting aspect of his presence is how much vote the other parties will lose to him.
From my South Australia 2006 analysis of Xenophon desertion rates it can be seen that some party's voters are more loyal than others. Many young Greens voters may be attracted by Xenophon's quirky style and drastically affect their primary senate vote.
Xenophon isn't receiving many preferences and is unlikely to get his second candidate elected unless his vote is near 28%.
Queensland Musings
Queensland is a tricky one.
Family First have broken the One Nation/Pauline nexus, which was an important source of preferences for her.
One Nation had a senator up for re-election in 2004 and are likely to lose half their vote, but still get above 1%, which is huge in senate terms.
The Maths for Queensland is this:
IF Coalition > 41% THEN
3-3 or 3-2-1
ELSE IF FF + ONP + GrpX + FishLife > Pauline + NonCust + Shoot + LDP THEN
2-2-1-1
ELSE
3-3
If Family First don't absorb Pauline's preferences, they get unleashed to the Labor Party, locking the Greens out of contention, and electing Labor to the 3rd Left Seat for the first time in Queensland since the six seat senate was created.
Potential Micro Harvests
The chances of Micro Harvests are often overstated due to over-estimation of Micro Party percentages. The chance of a Micro getting 1% is very very slim. Micro results are normally 0.5% or below. GROUP A,B,C etc should be 0.1%.
The Liberty and Democracy Party in New South Wales is the biggest chance. It's freaky how with semi-realistic numbers they get elected.
It's still highly unlikely due to the incredible number of micro preferences they are relying on to make up their numbers.
The LDP also stuffed up their paper work so only the acronym "LDP" will appear on the Ballot paper. A HUGE mistake.
If I was Terje Peterson, I'd mortgage the house and buy some TV time. This chance won't come again.
Personally I don't like some of their policies, such as Guns (too easy) and Drugs (too easy). I'd rather live in a safe, slightly less free society. So I'm hoping they don't win, despite their excellent free trade economic policies and my admiration of Ayn Rand's writing.
The CDP in WA have a harvest ready if the Liberal vote drops below 37%.
Antony Green has created some wonderful Senate Calculators for us to play with.
Should I still bother with mine ?
Interestingly, the very first time I ran it for Queensland, the result was 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green and 1 Family First.
Someone critique my estimated vote figures:
Party
% Votes
Liberal/National Coalition
% 37.90%
Australian Labor Party
% 35.93%
The Greens
% 7.00%
Family First
% 4.50%
Pauline's United Australia
% 5.00%
Australian Democrats
% 2.20%
One Nation
% 1.50%
The Fishing Party
% 1.28%
What Women Want
% 1.00%
Liberty and Democracy Party
% 0.90%
Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party
% 0.70%
D.L.P. - Democratic Labor Party
% 0.50%
Carers Alliance
% 0.40%
Climate Change Coalition
% 0.40%
Christian Democratic Party
% 0.30%
Non-Custodial Parents Party
% 0.19%
Citizens Electoral Council
% 0.15%
Socialist Alliance
% 0.10%
Senator On-Line
% 0.05%
I suspect I've been miserly with Pauline's first preference vote ?
UPDATE
Nope, I've tried it a few times. If FF get in front of Pauline they win.
UPDATE
Checking South Australia, currently predicting a Green/Xenophon win there.
Nick Xenophon's preference negotiation skills haven't improved since the South Australian election.
I gave him 10% yet he struggles to be elected. He receives almost zero Micro preferences and is the last candidate elected despite receiving twice the Green vote in my estimates.
UPDATE
There's a chance of either an LDP or CDP Harvest in New South Wales. A couple of scenarios I've tried produced wins from these parties, especially with really low coaliton primary votes.
The LDP also choke off the flow of preferences to Kerry Nettle, similar to the Liberals for Forests in NSW in 2004.
I will be putting my idle thoughts on what I see in this thread as I go through them.
Contenders: Labor, Coalition, Family First, Greens and Pauline.
Initial thoughts:
The Greens have put Family First ahead of the Coalition. The favour has not been returned.
This is a massive boost to Family First's prospects in the competiton with Ron Boswell, however I'm still looking.
Family First have the Democrats last, with the Greens second last.
Family First
Coalition
Pauline
Labor
Greens
Democrats
Democrats:
Greens
Labor
Coalition
Family First
Pauline
Coalition:
Family First
Democrats
Greens
Labor
Pauline
Labor:
Greens
Democrats
Family First
Coalition
Pauline
Greens:
Democrats
Labor
Family First
Coalition
Pauline
Pauline
Family First
Democrats
Labor
Coalition
Greens
in the senate in Victoria, there is a One Nation Party group registered (they got the 2nd position on the ballot paper), but there is also a One Nation WA candidate running for the senate in Victoria by himself, so he'll be listed with the three other ungrouped candidates running for the senate.
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